Customer behavior and adoption · Profit-based target-selection methodology with empirical predictive evaluation.
Optimal Selection for Direct Mail
Jan Roelf Bult, Tom Wansbeek (1995). Optimal Selection for Direct Mail. Marketing Science. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.14.4.378.
Plain-English take
Empirical part reports high predictive accuracy and higher net returns than traditional approaches. For your marketing: Use as a behavioral mechanism or experiment-design reference, not a direct forecast for a SaaS funnel.
How much weight to give this
2.5/5 Evidence needs cautious interpretation
The 1–5 evidence-check score is a practical reading aid, not a formal peer review or a probability that a conclusion is true. It combines design strength (2 points), sample reporting (1), comparison/control clarity (1), and how much of the paper could be checked (1). Access affects how confidently this directory can assess a study, not the study's underlying quality. Blinding is reported separately because it is not relevant to every design.
Profit-based target-selection methodology with empirical predictive evaluation.
Household mailing-list population in a direct-mail setting.
Judged from the publisher-described design and comparison; inspect the paper for complete analysis.
Publisher page and abstract were retrieved directly; full text was not assumed open.
Double-blind? Blinding was not established from the retrieved publisher record.
Research question
What the authors investigated
Which households should receive direct mail when mailing cost and expected return are optimized?
Design
Profit-based target-selection methodology with empirical predictive evaluation.
Sample and setting
Household mailing-list population in a direct-mail setting.
Reported result
What the study found
Empirical part reports high predictive accuracy and higher net returns than traditional approaches.
This is a paraphrase of the source. Check the original paper for definitions, estimates, statistical uncertainty and analysis details.
Scope and transfer
Limitations to keep in view
Abstract does not disclose the firm/sample size and evidence is from direct-mail target selection; external validity is limited by that setting.
Possible founder application
Use as a behavioral mechanism or experiment-design reference, not a direct forecast for a SaaS funnel.
Evidence access
Publisher record and abstract retrieved; consult the linked paper for full methods and tables.
Publisher abstract explicitly reports empirical predictive accuracy and net-return comparison. Direct publisher-page retrieval was recorded on 2026-10-09; this profile uses the publisher abstract/metadata and does not claim independent review of unavailable full text.
If only an abstract or metadata was available, the profile is limited to claims supported there. A paper's paywall does not change its evidentiary status, but it limits what we can substantiate from accessible text.