A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables

For your marketing

Possible founder application

Use it as a product, platform or behavior mechanism reference rather than a direct forecast for a SaaS funnel.

Reported result

What the study found

The model produced good predictions of the sales peak and its timing when applied to historical data, and provided a long-range color-television sales forecast.

Research question

What the authors investigated

Can the timing of consumers' initial purchases of new durable products be modeled from prior buyers, with innovation and imitation providing the behavioral rationale?

Design

Development and empirical testing of a new-product growth model against historical sales data, separating innovative and imitative purchase behavior; the model is also used for long-range forecasting.

Sample and setting

Historical data for eleven consumer durables, with a long-range forecast specifically developed for color television sets.

Scope and transfer

Limitations to keep in view

Not stated on the publisher article page's abstract; the reported empirical test concerns eleven consumer durables and the forecast example is color television, so broader applicability is not established by that page (scope caveat).

Research sources

The publisher abstract states that the model was tested empirically on eleven consumer durables, assumes initial-purchase timing relates to previous buyers, and yielded good predictions of both sales-peak level and timing. Direct publisher-page retrieval was recorded on 2026-10-09; profile summarizes the accessible record and does not claim independent review of inaccessible full text.