Customer behavior and adoption · Development and empirical testing of a new-product growth model against historical sales data, separating innovative and imitative purchase behavior; the model is also used for long-range forecasting.
A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables
Frank M. Bass (1969). A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables. Management Science. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.15.5.215.
Plain-English take
The model produced good predictions of the sales peak and its timing when applied to historical data, and provided a long-range color-television sales forecast. For your marketing: Use it as a product, platform or behavior mechanism reference rather than a direct forecast for a SaaS funnel.
How much weight to give this
2.5/5 Evidence needs cautious interpretation
The 1–5 evidence-check score is a practical reading aid, not a formal peer review or a probability that a conclusion is true. It combines design strength (2 points), sample reporting (1), comparison/control clarity (1), and how much of the paper could be checked (1). Access affects how confidently this directory can assess a study, not the study's underlying quality. Blinding is reported separately because it is not relevant to every design.
Development and empirical testing of a new-product growth model against historical sales data, separating innovative and imitative purchase behavior; the model is also used for long-range forecasting.
Historical data for eleven consumer durables, with a long-range forecast specifically developed for color television sets.
Based on the publisher-described design and comparison; see the article for complete analysis.
Publisher record was fetched directly; full text was not assumed open.
Double-blind? Blinding was not established from the retrieved publisher record.
Research question
What the authors investigated
Can the timing of consumers' initial purchases of new durable products be modeled from prior buyers, with innovation and imitation providing the behavioral rationale?
Design
Development and empirical testing of a new-product growth model against historical sales data, separating innovative and imitative purchase behavior; the model is also used for long-range forecasting.
Sample and setting
Historical data for eleven consumer durables, with a long-range forecast specifically developed for color television sets.
Reported result
What the study found
The model produced good predictions of the sales peak and its timing when applied to historical data, and provided a long-range color-television sales forecast.
This is a paraphrase of the source. Check the original paper for definitions, estimates, statistical uncertainty and analysis details.
Scope and transfer
Limitations to keep in view
Not stated on the publisher article page's abstract; the reported empirical test concerns eleven consumer durables and the forecast example is color television, so broader applicability is not established by that page (scope caveat).
Possible founder application
Use it as a product, platform or behavior mechanism reference rather than a direct forecast for a SaaS funnel.
Evidence access
Publisher abstract/metadata retrieved; consult the linked paper for full methods and tables.
The publisher abstract states that the model was tested empirically on eleven consumer durables, assumes initial-purchase timing relates to previous buyers, and yielded good predictions of both sales-peak level and timing. Direct publisher-page retrieval was recorded on 2026-10-09; profile summarizes the accessible record and does not claim independent review of inaccessible full text.
If only an abstract or metadata was available, the profile is limited to claims supported there. A paper's paywall does not change its evidentiary status, but it limits what we can substantiate from accessible text.