Paid media and measurement · Individual-level advertising response model with policy simulations
Online Display Advertising: Modeling the Effects of Multiple Creatives and Individual Impression Histories
Braun, M., & Moe, W. W. (2013). Marketing Science, 32(5), 753–767.
Plain-English take
The model distinguishes exposure histories and creative content; simulations suggest advertisers can increase website visits and conversions by varying the creative shown to a person. For your marketing: Treat creative sequence and repetition as testable variables.
How much weight to give this
2.5/5 Limited or context-dependent evidence
The 1–5 evidence-check score is a practical reading aid, not a formal peer review or a probability that a conclusion is true. It combines design strength (2 points), sample reporting (1), comparison/control clarity (1), and how much of the paper could be checked (1). Access affects how confidently this directory can assess a study, not the study's underlying quality. Blinding is reported separately because it is not relevant to every design.
The accessible description does not establish a strong causal design.
A usable sample size is not stated in the profile's accessible source.
Comparison or control details are limited in the reviewed source.
This profile could be checked against an abstract or metadata, not the full paper.
Double-blind? Not applicable in the same way as a participant-treatment experiment.
Research question
What the authors investigated
How do display-ad creative variation and each person's exposure history relate to visits and conversions?
Design
The authors model individual impression histories across multiple creatives and estimate effects on visits to and conversions at the advertised brand's website; they use simulations to compare delivery strategies.
Sample and setting
Online display-ad exposures and subsequent website behavior in the advertiser data analyzed by the paper; the abstracted record does not provide sample size.
Reported result
What the study found
The model distinguishes exposure histories and creative content; simulations suggest advertisers can increase website visits and conversions by varying the creative shown to a person.
This is a paraphrase of the source. Check the original paper for definitions, estimates, statistical uncertainty and analysis details.
Scope and transfer
Limitations to keep in view
The simulations depend on the fitted model and advertiser data. The publisher abstract does not provide sample size or establish that creative rotation will improve outcomes for every campaign.
Possible founder application
Treat creative sequence and repetition as testable variables. Log exposure history and compare conversion outcomes when rotating messages, while accounting for audience and frequency differences.
Evidence access
Publisher record and bibliographic abstract
INFORMS publisher record plus bibliographic abstract; no unreported sample counts or effect sizes are supplied.
If only an abstract or metadata was available, the profile is limited to claims supported there. A paper's paywall does not change its evidentiary status, but it limits what we can substantiate from accessible text.