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J·BJon BishopIndependent growth marketer

Advertising and promotion · Multiyear randomized advertising experiment directed at businesses; estimates delayed responses, return on ad spend, and heterogeneity by business/customer setting.

Long Lags and Large Returns: Experimental Evidence from Advertising to Businesses

Michael Thomas, Marcel Goic, Kirthi Kalyanam (2025). Long Lags and Large Returns: Experimental Evidence from Advertising to Businesses. Management Science. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.02661

Management Science · 2025DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.02661 ↗

Plain-English take

Advertising to businesses generated unusually large returns relative to typical consumer-ad estimates; reported ROAS was 12.0 (95% CI 4.8–24.5), with long response lags.

How much weight to give this

4/5 Field or experimental evidence with bounded scope

The 1–5 evidence-check score is a practical reading aid, not a formal peer review or a probability that a conclusion is true. It combines design strength (2 points), sample reporting (1), comparison/control clarity (1), and how much of the paper could be checked (1). Access affects how confidently this directory can assess a study, not the study's underlying quality. Blinding is reported separately because it is not relevant to every design.

Design · 2/2

Multiyear randomized advertising experiment directed at businesses; estimates delayed responses, return on ad spend, and heterogeneity by business/customer setting.

Sample · 0.5/1

Business customers/advertising recipients in a multiyear field experiment; the publisher abstract reports a 12.0 ROAS (95% CI 4.8–24.5) but not the sample count in the fetched page.

Comparison · 1/1

Check comparison conditions and analysis in the paper.

Can we check it? · 0/1

Publisher record checked; full-text methods were not verified.

Double-blind? Blinding details were not established from the checked publisher page.

Research question

What the authors investigated

What does long lags and large returns: experimental evidence from advertising to businesses show about customer behavior or marketing outcomes?

Design

Multiyear randomized advertising experiment directed at businesses; estimates delayed responses, return on ad spend, and heterogeneity by business/customer setting.

Sample and setting

Business customers/advertising recipients in a multiyear field experiment; the publisher abstract reports a 12.0 ROAS (95% CI 4.8–24.5) but not the sample count in the fetched page.

Reported result

What the study found

Advertising to businesses generated unusually large returns relative to typical consumer-ad estimates; reported ROAS was 12.0 (95% CI 4.8–24.5), with long response lags.

This is a paraphrase of the source. Check the original paper for definitions, estimates, statistical uncertainty and analysis details.

Scope and transfer

Limitations to keep in view

Conservative inference: the authors frame results as responses to businesses and compare with consumers; the one multiyear experiment/setting limits transport to other B2B sectors, campaign lengths, and platforms. Full-text methods and correction history were not independently checked.

Possible founder application

Use this paper as evidence about long lags and large returns: experimental evidence from advertising to businesses in the stated context; compare its population, treatment and outcome with your own decision.

Evidence access

Publisher page; full-text availability varies and was not established.

Candidate study metadata and reported evidence were cross-checked against a direct publisher-page retrieval; the full article was not independently reviewed.

If only an abstract or metadata was available, the profile is limited to claims supported there. A paper's paywall does not change its evidentiary status, but it limits what we can substantiate from accessible text.

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