Content and sharing · Longitudinal observational analysis using vector autoregression
Effects of Word-of-Mouth Versus Traditional Marketing: Findings from an Internet Social Networking Site
Trusov, M., Bucklin, R. E., & Pauwels, K. (2009). Journal of Marketing, 73(5), 90–102.
Plain-English take
Word-of-mouth referrals had longer carryover effects than traditional marketing actions in this study. For your marketing: Instrument referral activity and evaluate its delayed contribution alongside paid or event-driven acquisition.
How much weight to give this
3.0/5 Limited or context-dependent evidence
The 1–5 evidence-check score is a practical reading aid, not a formal peer review or a probability that a conclusion is true. It combines design strength (2 points), sample reporting (1), comparison/control clarity (1), and how much of the paper could be checked (1). Access affects how confidently this directory can assess a study, not the study's underlying quality. Blinding is reported separately because it is not relevant to every design.
This is observational evidence; selection or unmeasured differences may affect the result.
A usable sample size is not stated in the profile's accessible source.
Statistical adjustment is not the same as random assignment; review the controls and assumptions.
An accessible full paper or manuscript is linked, making methods easier to check.
Double-blind? Not applicable in the same way as a participant-treatment experiment.
Research question
What the authors investigated
How does member-to-member word of mouth compare with traditional marketing in driving signups at an online social network?
Design
The authors link tracked electronic invitations, conventional marketing activity and new member signups over time, using a vector autoregression to account for dynamic relationships and feedback among the series.
Sample and setting
One Internet social networking site with observable invitations and promotional activity; the paper analyzes signup dynamics and marketing events over time.
Reported result
What the study found
Word-of-mouth referrals had longer carryover effects than traditional marketing actions in this setting. The estimated long-run signup elasticity for word of mouth was 0.53 and substantially exceeded the estimated elasticities for marketing events and media appearances.
This is a paraphrase of the source. Check the original paper for definitions, estimates, statistical uncertainty and analysis details.
Scope and transfer
Limitations to keep in view
A single online social network and observational time-series estimates; the estimated relationships may not transfer to other businesses or channels. The study does not equate elasticity with causal return on spend.
Possible founder application
Instrument referral activity and evaluate its delayed contribution alongside paid or event-driven acquisition. Do not compare elasticities as though they were comparable ROI without cost and causal attribution data.
Evidence access
Publisher record and author-hosted paper
Journal citation verified in publisher-linked sources; abstract and author-hosted paper support setting and findings.
If only an abstract or metadata was available, the profile is limited to claims supported there. A paper's paywall does not change its evidentiary status, but it limits what we can substantiate from accessible text.